China’s trade surplus tops $1 trillion as AI hardware demand lifts exports 35%

China’s trade surplus has passed $1 trillion for the second year running, Reuters reported, as demand for AI-related hardware pushed October exports up 35.2% from a year earlier.

What the customs numbers show

The General Administration of Customs published its January-October figures on Tuesday, November 10. According to Xinhua’s report on the release, total goods trade grew 20% year on year, up from 18.8% in the first nine months. Imports rose 23.6% and exports 17.6% over the ten months. Those are cumulative rates for the period; the October-only numbers are higher.

For October alone, CNBC reported that exports climbed 35.2% in dollar terms, ahead of a 33.5% forecast in a Reuters poll and just under September’s 36.3%. Imports jumped 41.6%, against an expected 32%. That faster import growth narrowed the monthly surplus to about $105.3 billion, the lowest since April, according to LSEG data cited by CNBC.

The year-to-date surplus stands at about $1.04 trillion. Investinglive notes it was reached roughly a month earlier than in 2025, and CNBC puts the record full-year 2025 surplus at $1.2 trillion.

Where AI enters the picture

CNBC attributes much of the export surge to strong demand for Chinese chips and other AI-related hardware. Investinglive adds that the demand is mainly for data center equipment, and that FedEx has added freighter capacity between China and the US aimed at AI infrastructure and semiconductors. The customs release as relayed by Xinhua does not break out chips or electronics, so the AI link rests on the outlets’ reading, not on a customs statement.

The import side points the same way. CNBC’s calculations from official data show high-tech imports up 72% by value in October, with crude oil up about 41%, LNG about 50% and coal about 60%. The Economist Intelligence Unit’s Tianchen Xu, quoted in paraphrase by CNBC, tied the import surge mainly to tech goods, critical minerals and energy.

Who feels this in practice

For chip and server supply chains, the data shows a boom that is concentrated in one kind of demand. CNBC warns that a slowdown in the global AI buildout would hit export momentum and squeeze exporters’ margins, and Investinglive reports analysts expect exports to accelerate in the fourth quarter and slow from early 2027, depending on how long the AI boom lasts. Readers tracking the sector can compare this with the debate over verifying where AI chips are located, which is partly about how hardware moves across borders.

For China’s trading partners, the numbers raise friction. The surplus with the US was about $32.7 billion in October and the surplus with the EU about $33.4 billion, per CNBC. US-bound shipments are up 12.1% year to date, partly because last year’s base was low after a 20% fall. Under a September agreement, Europe will cap imported Chinese hybrid vehicles at 350,000 a year from December 1. That is above the roughly 300,000 shipped last year but far below the recent annualized pace of about 800,000, according to Brad Setser of the Council on Foreign Relations, cited by CNBC.

The headline also hides weak spots at home. Investinglive says domestic car sales fell for a 12th straight month and consumer spending is soft amid a property downturn, while CNBC notes official factory activity unexpectedly shrank in October as overseas orders cooled. Foreign companies with China exposure are already feeling political pressure; our report on China blocking SoftBank’s $5.4B ABB robotics deal shows how trade and industrial policy can intersect.

What the data does not settle

The figures are official, but the AI explanation is the press’s interpretation. No customs breakdown by product was available in the release coverage we read, and we could not open the Reuters article itself, so details beyond its headline come from the other outlets named here.

Politics may come next. The US-China trade truce was extended by two months to January, and CNBC and Investinglive both report that Xi Jinping and Donald Trump are expected to meet at the APEC summit in Shenzhen next week. Investinglive reports analysts see tariff risks staying elevated into 2027 as Chinese manufacturers expand overseas.