Maersk lifts 2026 profit target again, but shares fall 11% on a Q3 miss

A.P. Moller-Maersk has raised its 2026 profit guidance again, to underlying EBIT of $8.0-8.5 billion, as high freight rates and port congestion carry the shipping group, according to its Reuters report. Shares still fell sharply.

The new numbers and how the market read them

Maersk’s own announcement lifts underlying EBITDA guidance to $14.0-14.5 billion, from $10.5-12.5 billion, and underlying EBIT to $8.0-8.5 billion, from $4.5-6.5 billion. The company says the change reflects third-quarter results and better visibility for the rest of the year. It assumes global container volume growth of around 4% in 2026.

For the third quarter, Maersk reported EBITDA of $4.7 billion, up about 75% from a year earlier. Revenue rose 27% to $18.1 billion. Ocean, the container shipping unit, drove the improvement: its EBIT reached $2.6 billion, against $567 million a year earlier. Group EBIT was about $3.3 billion.

Those figures were not enough for investors. EBITDA fell short of the $5.04 billion average forecast in an LSEG poll, according to Reuters-based coverage. gCaptain, citing Bloomberg, reported that EBIT also missed the $3.61 billion analyst estimate, and that the new EBIT guidance sits below the $8.66 billion average Bloomberg compiled. Shares dropped as much as 11.6% in Copenhagen, the steepest fall since April 2025, though the stock remained up about 36% for the year.

Congestion and the AI buildout behind the rates

Maersk points to a severe typhoon season in Asia that caused heavy port congestion. According to coverage of its release, global average port waiting times peaked at 16.6 hours, the highest since January 2023. Freight rates rose 46% from the previous quarter.

The AI link comes from the press, not the company’s own text we could confirm. Bloomberg attributes part of the stronger demand and higher rates to the worldwide rollout of AI infrastructure, and the Reuters headline names the AI buildout alongside congestion. For readers following AI hardware, the story is a reminder that data center equipment must be shipped, and that crowded ports and tight capacity can raise what that costs.

A raise that rests on tailwinds the company calls temporary

The picture has gaps. Maersk has not, in the material we read, put a figure on how much of its volume or earnings comes from AI-related cargo, so the size of that effect is unknown. The Bloomberg attribution is the outlet’s own reading.

The guidance also implies a softer end to the year. According to gCaptain, it points to fourth-quarter earnings slightly below the third quarter. Analysts quoted there were split on the quality of the quarter. Mikkel Emil Jensen of Sydbank blamed the miss on the Ocean unit, where volume growth was a little weaker and costs higher than expected. Haider Anjum of Jyske Bank said the earnings were strong but “not strong enough”, and noted that they lean on disruption around the Strait of Hormuz, typhoons and congestion, questioning how long those tailwinds will last.

Chief executive Vincent Clerc, per the same report, told reporters that some analysts should look into the spreadsheets, a sign that management considers expectations too high.

The pattern is familiar. Earlier this year Maersk had already moved its range up to $10.5-12.5 billion of EBITDA after its second-quarter results, so the latest step is its third raise of 2026. Each came as spot rates climbed on disruption rather than on a lasting rise in demand. If congestion eases or trade routes normalize, the rate support could fade, and Maersk’s guidance depends on the 4% volume growth assumption holding.

For companies shipping servers, chips and cooling equipment, the practical effect is higher freight costs and longer waits while ports stay crowded. Our recent coverage of the spending behind that equipment includes Oracle’s $20 billion stock and bond sale and Siltronic’s raised outlook on AI wafer demand.